Enter the best number
Use the standout roll from a session or load the best number saved in your local journal. Its score determines the single-roll rarity.
LUCK CHECK
How lucky
were you?
Measure a best-of-N run, compare it with another run, and share the odds without pretending luck can be guaranteed.
YOUR BEST142857Uncommon · 8,131 EP · top 31.6%
EXPECTED TERRITORY100%
chance of seeing at least one equally rare result in 30 independent rolls
TYPICAL BESTtop 2.28%median best after 30 rolls
AVERAGE WAIT3 rollslong-run average, not a promise
50% CHANCE2 rollscumulative chance threshold
90% CHANCE7 rollscumulative chance threshold
This estimate treats each roll as independent and uses this roll’s exact full-space EP percentile. It describes odds, not a guaranteed waiting time.
PROBABILITY GUIDE
Put a best roll into the context of a longer run
The Luck Calculator combines a roll’s exact full-range EP percentile with the number of attempts in a run. It estimates how likely it is to see at least one result that rare or rarer.
Add the roll count
Enter how many independent attempts were made. The cumulative chance grows with more rolls even though each individual roll keeps the same odds.
Read the run estimate
Compare the encounter chance, typical median best, average wait, and the roll counts associated with 50% and 90% chances.
Probability describes a run; it does not promise an outcome
A 50% cumulative chance means half of many comparable runs would see at least one equally rare result by that point. It does not mean the result must appear, and missing it does not make the next attempt more likely.
Average wait is a long-run expectation and can be much larger or smaller in one real session. Use Run Comparison to place two best-of-N sessions beside each other when the number of attempts differs.
PLAYER QUESTIONS
Useful details before you start
Are rolls treated as independent?
Yes. The estimate assumes one result does not alter the probability distribution of the next roll.
Why can a rare number still have a high encounter chance?
A small single-roll chance accumulates across many attempts. A long run creates more opportunities to meet or beat the same rarity threshold.